COURTESY HT SEPT 30
Global Covid deaths may be much higher: Expert
A gravedigger rests at a burial ground for victims of Covid-19 in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Tuesday. AFP
Bloomberg
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MELBOURNE : The world officially recorded 1 million deaths from Covid-19 in one of the most sobering milestones of the pandemic, but the real tally might be almost double that.
Actual fatalities from the worst outbreak in a century may be closer to 1.8 million — a toll that could grow to as high as 3 million by the end of the year, according to Alan Lopez, a laureate professor and director of the University of Melbourne’s global burden of disease group. Covid-19’s rapid spread and ability to transmit in people who show no signs of the disease have enabled it to outrun measures to accurately quantify cases through widespread diagnostic testing.
“It’s fair to say that the 1 million deaths, as shocking as it sounds, is probably an underestimate — a significant underestimate,” Lopez said.
Even in countries with sophisticated health systems, mortality is difficult to accurately gauge. Tens of thousands of probable Covid-19 deaths in the US weren’t captured by official statistics between March and May, a study in July found.
The dearth of accurate data undermines the ability of governments to implement timely policies to protect public health and promote economic recovery. If the mortality from Covid-19 reaches 3 million, as Lopez predicted, it would rank the disease among the world’s worst killers.
No system
India has confirmed more than 6 million Covid-19 cases, but accounts for only about 96,000 deaths. The country with the highest number of infections after the US lacks a reliable national vital statistics registration system to track deaths in real time. Meanwhile, in Indiana in the US researchers found that although nursing home residents weren’t routinely tested, they represented 55% of the state’s Covid-19 deaths.
“Yes, cases are reported daily everywhere, but as soon as you get to the next tier down, like how many were admitted to hospitals, there have just been huge gaps in the data,” said Christopher J Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.
Patients with heart disease, diabetes and other chronic conditions are at greater risk of dying from Covid-19. Some governments, including Russia, are attributing the cause of deaths in some of these patients to the pre-existing condition, raising questions about the mortality data.
In July, Russia recorded 5,922 fatalities due to Covid-19. At least 4,157 other deaths were linked to the coronavirus, but not included in the tally because of how the nation defines such deaths.
Japan drop
Although the pandemic has altered mortality patterns worldwide, not all of the changes are a direct result of it, Lopez said. Physical distancing measures may have reduced road fatalities and deaths caused by influenza. In Japan, deaths fell by 3.5% in May from a year earlier even as Covid-19 cases peaked.
Worldwide, the growth in the number of daily deaths has eased since spiking in March and April, helped by improved medical care. But as resurgences flare in Europe and North America ahead of winter, Covid-19 fatalities may rise sharply again