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Hry to face ₹1.06L cr loss in FY20-21, Punjab ₹83,035cr

May 27, 2020 06:46 AM


Hry to face ₹1.06L cr loss in FY20-21, Punjab ₹83,035cr


Haryana is expected to face around Rs 1.06 lakh crore loss this financial year because of the Covid-19 lockdown. Similarly, Punjab’s loss is projected at around Rs 83,035 crore, for Himachal Pradesh around Rs 17,728 crore and almost Rs 9,383 crore for UT Chandigarh.

The projections, by the research team of the State Bank of India (SBI), estimate total loss of over Rs 30.33 lakh crore for the country during 2020-21 — or 13.5% of the total Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). Haryana’s loss is estimated at 12.6% of its GSDP, Punjab’s at 13.6%, Himachal Pradesh (10%) and UT Chandigarh (18.8%).

Haryana CM Manohar Lal Khattar too had flagged the issue of financial losses and had said the state could face Rs 4,600 crore revenue loss in April. TVSN Prasad, additional chief secretary (finance) of Haryana, told TOI, “We can comment about GSDP losses only after going through the SBI report. But due to the lockdown, there have been revenue losses to the state exchequer and our CM has shared these during his press conferences.”Punjab finance minister Manpreet Badal has also voiced concern that the state was losing Rs 1,700 crore GSDP daily due to lockdown.

Loss in Q1 GDP could exceed 40%, says report

Punjab FM said the state stares at Rs 20,000 crore revenue loss in the current financial year.

Maharashtra, which is worst hit by Covid-19, will be facing the maximum GSDP loss among all the states amounting to over Rs 4.72 lakh crore, or 15.6% of the country’s total GDP loss. Tamil Nadu is at the second number with over Rs 2.86 lakh crore (9.4%) loss followed by Gujarat with over Rs 2.61 lakh crore (8.6%) loss, according to the research team.

“One interesting aspect of data is the difference between GDP and GVA (Gross Value Added). Normally the difference between GDP and GVA growth rate is not large, but this time due to huge losses in net indirect taxes, the difference will be quite big. We estimate real GVA growth could be at –3.1% in FY21 and real GDP growth at –6.8% in FY21,” according to the report released on Tuesday. The estimated loss in the form of net indirect taxes has been pegged at around Rs 10.4 lakh crore in the financial year 2020-21.

Based on the current sevenday moving average of new cases in the country, the SBI team said, “We believe that new cases are likely to peak somewhere anytime in the last week of June, beginning June 20.” Following this, new cases are expected to witness steep fall till the beginning of August after which the Covid-19 curve is expected to flatten by mid-September.

The report points out that loss in the first-quarter GDP of 2020-21will be “humongous and could even exceed 40%.” But the study believes that the second-quarter GDP “could witness a smart recovery and clock 7.1%, if we are able to sustain the demand.” The growth in the third and the fourth quarter of this financial year could be pegged at an average of 6%.

“When India had first imposed a lockdown, our GDP estimate was 2.6% and since then it has been progressively reduced to a negative 4.7%, with nominal GDP witnessing a contraction,” the team observed.

The report mentions that the automobile sector has been reeling under pressure and because of the current lockdown, domestic automobile sales had been pushed to 123-month low of 10.5 lakh units in the month of March.

As Google has been releasing the ‘community mobility reports’, the team has compared the data from March 22 to May 16, which indicates that mobility has improved with ease of lockdown in transit stations and work places, but the movement for ‘retail and creation’ remain at the same level

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